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SIR CRISPIN TICKELL ON THE RECORD

Erika Yarrow talks to the renowned authority on climate change.

Sir Crispin Tickell is a man who is disconcertingly relaxed about human-induced climate change.  When I say relaxed, I do not mean that his attitude is one of nonchalance or disregard. Quite the opposite.  He has an exacting and supreme understanding of the subject, resulting from extensive academic research.  But when he says that mankind may not survive climate change, he does so with a calm authority that enforces chillingly the seriousness of the issue. 

It should come as no surprise that Sir Crispin is at home with the concept that gives many of us nightmares, waking-up in a pool of sweat, guilt ridden at the hand that we have dealt future generations.  He is, after all, a world authority on climate change and someone who began studying the subject way back in a time when most of us were just getting to grips with new fangled technologies such as the digital watch, and Martin Cooper of Motorola impressed us all by making the first call on a handheld mobile phone the size of a house brick.   

It was during his sabbatical at Harvard University in 1975-1976 that Sir Crispin first had the opportunity to take on the subject.  At this time climate change research was in its infancy.  He recalls that he read everything that had been written on the subject in three short months.  His research resulted in the publication of Climatic Change and World Affairs, marking his first call for action.

Born for diplomacy, Sir Crispin began his working life in the British Diplomatic Service in 1954, rising quickly through the ranks.  It was as Chef de Cabinet to the President of the European Commission in 1977-1981 that he was able to combine his academic and diplomatic skills to move climate change up the political agenda.  A fateful flight to Paris in 1984, as Deputy Under-Secretary of State to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, gave Sir Crispin the opportunity to speak to the then Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher.  This encounter marked the beginning of a relationship that saw Sir Crispin advising Mrs Thatcher and helping to write her famous speech on global climate change. 'Margaret Thatcher was very interested in the environment,' confides Sir Crispin.  After Margaret Thatcher's demise, he went on to chair John Major's Government Panel on Sustainable Development and became, as he describes, 'unofficial advisor to No. 10'.

Despite the concern of environmentalists that too little is being done to mitigate climate change, Sir Crispin is proud of the leadership that Britain has shown.  He also recognises how keenly the environmental card is being played in the current political climate.  'The public are now eager to know the truth about climate change,' he says, adding that Tony Blair wants the environment to be 'his big leaving thing.' 

If the public is now opening its eyes to the fact that the future is going to look very different to the present, the one clear answer from the scientific community is that there is still a great deal of uncertainty.  'I prefer to talk not so much about climate change as climate destabilisation,' explains Sir Crispin.  As we talk in his Maida Vale flat, he goes on to explain what that might mean for the south-east of England; warmer, dryer summers and warmer, wetter winters, that may result in the realisation that our reservoirs are in anything but the right place.  More specifically, London will be threatened by rising water levels. 'Now that the manufacturing industry has left London the aquifers are rising,' explains Sir Crispin, concluding: 'This will be a problem for the tube.'

Energy will be a key factor in climate change mitigation and Sir Crispin takes a pragmatic view as to which sources may be adopted. 'I take a cautionary attitude to nuclear.  You would need to be able to satisfy public opinion as to the safety of nuclear and deal with the environmental requirements,' he says. 'There will never be a shortage of energy; it is a matter of which kind you go for.  It took two million years to lay down fossil fuels and we have used most of them in 200 years.  But we have always changed.  Biofuels are a way of developing energy, but you produce a large amount of carbon dioxide when making ethanol and you also have the question of food safety - look at the Mexican tortilla riots.  The first requirement is that we should have the energy that we require.  Mitigation is something that we all should do morally.  Adaptation is what we must do.'

Sir Crispin's overview is that man has always encountered and adapted to change and climate is another of those factors to challenge our adaptation skills.  The question is whether we will adapt fast enough. 'The first priority should be to firm up the rules on emissions,' he says. 'The question is how you structure a carbon regime, considering that most governments will cheat if they can.  We need to think differently about economics.  The Chinese are ahead of the game, inventing clean, green, growth.  The Chinese government is very informed.   We also need a whole new methodology for defining wealth and welfare.' 

Sir Crispin concludes: 'You cannot tell people that their standards of living are going to drop, you must tell them that their way of living will change.'